🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year backed Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.