‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, local news say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their fuel reserves have shrunk with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been triggered by false reports. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through diversification. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.