Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.