A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
